The Institute for Economic Research

Forecasts

Details Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast

Forecast Summary - October 2009

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (September 10th, 2009) is for real GDP growth of -2.6% in 2009 (unchanged from the consensus forecast available in August 2009) and for 2.4% growth in 2010 (up from 2.0% in August 2009). The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2009 unemployment rate of 9.2% (down from 9.3% in August 2009) and a 2010 unemployment rate of 9.8% (down from 9.9% in August 2009). The Consumer Price Index is predicted to change by -0.5% in 2009 (up from -0.6% in August 2009) and by 1.8% in 2010 (unchanged from in August 2009). The GDP Deflator is predicted to rise by 1.4% in 2009 (down from 1.7% in August 2009) and by 1.4% in 2010 (unchanged from August 2009).

The Institute for Economic Research income forecasts are based on the data through the first quarter of 2009 for the state and the second quarter of 2009 for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow by -1.1% in 2009 (down from -0.9% in August 2009), and by 0.5% in 2010 (down from 1.1% in August 2009). The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is -3.1% in 2009 (down from -2.9% in August 2009) and -0.4% in 2010 (down from 0.03% in August 2009).

Our employment growth forecast for 2009 (based on the data through August 2009 for the nation and the state) is -2.9% (down from -2.6% in August 2009). The employment growth forecast for 2010 is -1.3% in 2010 (unchanged from August 2009).

Details Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast Presentation

Forecast Summary - August 2009

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (July 10th, 2009) is for real GDP growth of -2.6% in 2009 (up from -2.8% in the consensus forecast available in June 2009) and for 2.0% growth in 2010 (up from 1.9% in June 2009). The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2009 unemployment rate of 9.3% (up from 9.1% in June 2009) and a 2010 unemployment rate of 9.9% (up from 9.7% in June 2009). The Consumer Price Index is predicted to change by -0.6% in 2009 (up from -0.8% in June 2009) and by 1.8% in 2010 (up from 1.7% in June 2009). The GDP Deflator is predicted to rise by 1.7% in 2009 (up from 1.6% in June 2009) and by 1.4% in 2010 (up from 1.3% in June 2009).

The Institute for Economic Research income forecast is based on the data through the first quarter of 2009 for the state and the second quarter of 2009 for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow by -0.9% in 2009 (down from 2.6% in June 2009), and by 1.1% in 2010 (down from 4.4% in June 2009). The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is -2.9% in 2009 (down from -0.5% in June 2009) and 0.03% in 2010 (down from 1.8% in June 2009).

Our employment growth forecast for 2009 (based on the data through June 2009 for the nation and the state) is -2.6% (unchanged from June 2009). The employment growth forecast for 2010 is -1.3% in 2010 (down from -1.0% in June 2009).

Details Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast Presentation

Forecast Summary - March 2009

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (March 10th, 2009) is for real GDP growth of -2.6% in 2009 (down from -0.4% in the consensus forecast available for the December 2008 report) and for 1.9% growth in 2010. The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2009 unemployment rate of 8.6% (up from 7.4% in December 2008) and a 2010 unemployment rate of 9.1%. The Consumer Price Index is predicted to change by -0.8% in 2009 (down from 1.5% in December 2008) and by 1.6% in 2010. The GDP Deflator is predicted to rise by 1.2% in 2009 (down from 2.0% in December 2008) and by 1.2% in 2010.

The Institute for Economic Research January income forecast is based on the data through the third quarter of 2008 for the state and the fourth quarter of 2008 for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2009 (down from 5.0% in December 2008), and by 4.5% in 2010 (down from 5.2% in December 2008). The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is 0.2% in 2009 (down from 1.9% in December 2008) and 2.0% in 2010 (down from 2.5% in December 2008).

Our employment growth forecast for 2009 (based on the data through February 2009 for the nation and January 2009 for the state) is -2.3% (down from -0.1% in December 2008).

Details Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast Presentation

Forecast Summary - December 2008

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (November 10th, 2008) is for real GDP growth of 1.4% in 2008 (down from 1.8% in the consensus forecast available from the October report) and for -0.4% growth in 2009 (down from 1.5% in October). The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2008 unemployment rate of 5.7% (up from 5.5% in October) and of 7.4% in 2009 (up from 6.2% in October). The Consumer Price Index is predicted to increase by 4.2% in 2008 (down from 4.4% in October) and by 1.5% in 2009 (down from 2.9% in October). The GDP Deflator is predicted to increase by 2.4% in 2008 (up from 2.3% in October) and 2.0% in 2009 (down from 2.3% in October).

The Institute for Economic Research October income forecast is based on data through the second quarter of 2008 for the state and the third quarter of 2008 for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow 5.0% in 2009 (unchanged from October forecast), and it is expected to grow 5.2% in 2010. The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is 1.9% in 2009 (down from 2.0% in October) and 2.5% in 2010.

Our employment growth forecast for 2009 (based on data through October) is -0.1% (up from -0.4% in October). Employment is expected to increase by 0.8% in 2010.

Details Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast Presentation

Forecast Summary - October 2008

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (September 10th, 2008) is for real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2008 (up from 1.5% in July) and for 1.5% growth in 2009 (down from 1.9% in July). The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2008 unemployment rate of 5.5% (up from 5.3% in July) and of 6.2% in 2009 (up from 5.6% in July). The Consumer Price Index is predicted to rise by 4.4% in 2008 (up from 3.9% in July) and by 2.9% in 2009 (up from 2.6% in July). The Blue Chip prediction is that the GDP Deflator will be 2.3% in 2008 (down from 2.4% from Julyl) and 2.3% in 2009 (unchanged from July).

The Institute for Economic Research July income forecast is based on data through the second quarter of 2008 for the state and for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow 5.3% in 2008, which is up from the July forecast of 5.1%, and it is expected to grow 5.0% in 2009, which is up from the July forecast of 4.9%. The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is 3.0% in 2008 (up from 2.2% in July) and 2.0% in 2009 (up from 1.9% in July).

Our employment growth forecast for 2008 (based on data through August) is 0.2% (down 0.4% in July), and it is expected to be -0.4% in 2009 (down from 0.1% in July).

Details Iowa Revenue Growth Forecast Presentation

Forecast Summary - April 2008

The consensus forecast published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators (March10th, 2008) is for real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2008 (down from 2.4% in the December Iowa Economic Forecast) and for 2.3% growth in 2009. The Blue Chip consensus forecast is for a 2008 unemployment rate of 5.3% (up from 4.9% in December) and of 5.4% in 2009. The Consumer Price Index is predicted to rise by 3.4% in 2008 (up from 2.6% in December) and by 2.4% in 2009. The Blue Chip prediction is that the GDP Deflator will rise by 2.4% in 2008 (up from 2.0% in December) and 2.2% in 2009.

The Institute for Economic Research April income forecast is based on data through the fourth quarter of 2007 for the state and for the nation. Personal Income in Iowa is expected to grow 4.7% in 2008, which is down from the December forecast of 4.8%, and it is expected to grow 4.5% in 2009, which is down from the December forecast of 4.9%. The forecast for Real Personal Income growth (personal income growth adjusted for inflation) is 1.8% in 2008 (down from 1.9% in December) and 1.8% in 2009 (down from 2.2% in December).

Our employment growth forecast for 2008 (based on data through February) is 0.1%, which is down from the December forecast of 0.3%. Employment is expected to increase by 0.2% in 2009, down from the December predicted increase of 0.4%.