Nelson, Polgreen Discuss Flu Market
October 8, 2005 | Wall Street JournalPublic-health officials who predict the timing and size of seasonal flu epidemics could learn a trick or two from the Chicago futures market, researchers said. Economics professor FORREST NELSON and medical-school instructor PHILIP POLGREEN of the University of Iowa in Iowa City said they were able to predict the extent of flu outbreaks in Iowa last year by adapting a futures-market model that also has forecast events from presidential elections to the Academy Awards. The study was presented at the Infectious Disease Society of America meeting in San Francisco Thursday.
Contact: Forrest Nelson