October 7, 2005 | Medpage TodayUsing Wall Street traders' techniques, healthcare workers predicted flu outbreaks two weeks before the actual events, according to a pilot study. To test whether such market methods would be useful for prediction of infectious diseases, researchers at the University of Iowa recruited 60 healthcare workers from their state and organized a stock-market scenario. They described their methods and results at a meeting here of the Infectious Disease Society of America. "Ninety-percent of the time, the market was able to get within one color four weeks ahead of the event," said FORREST D. NELSON, Ph.D., an economist at the university who has developed prediction markets and is a member of the research team. PHILIP M. POLGREEN, M.D., the infectious disease specialist who led the study, is also quoted. Stories that run in MedPage Today are linked to directly from MSNBC's Website.
Contact: Forrest Nelson