UI Presidential Markets Cited

Market efficiency can be harnessed for much more than just making or losing money. Since the late 1980s, the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has been running an electronic exchange that allows (mainly) academics to trade small sums of money on forthcoming presidential elections. On average, in the week before each election, the markets have predicted the candidates' share with an average error of 1.5 percentage points, compared with an error of 2.1 points in the final Gallup poll. The newspaper is based in the U.K.

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