November 5, 2006 | ABC NewsNew research casts doubts on the predictive powers of political pundits, especially in comparison to the often surprisingly accurate prediction "markets" run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA and other organizations. In them, analysts can put at least a little bit of their money where their big mouths are. Such markets require clearly stated predictions. They bring the discipline of the market to forecasts that are often so nebulous as to be unfalsifiable.
Contact: George Neumann