Rietz Notes Iowa Electronic Markets' Track Record
January 10, 2008 | Chicago TribuneTribune columnist Bill Barnhart writes, "The New Hampshire primary was a reminder that prediction markets, where bettors are putting money on the line, can have no more value than opinion polls, where participation costs nothing. Nonetheless, prediction markets make a good case. Professors at the University of Iowa who operate the Iowa Electronic Markets recently reported that since 1988 their markets beat 964 presidential election opinion polls 74 percent of the time. Moreover, superior results of the Iowa markets versus polls were evident more than 100 days before elections, said Iowa finance professor THOMAS RIETZ."