Iowa Electronic Markets Traders Favor Obama
April 9, 2008 | ReutersDemocratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton will win several state nominating contests in the coming months but has little chance of becoming the party's candidate for the November 2008 election, traders were betting on Tuesday. On the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA traders are giving Obama an 82.9 percent chance of winning, versus a 12.8 percent chance for Clinton. Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. Studies of prediction markets have shown they have an accuracy comparable to that of public opinion polls. The article appeared in several media outlets, including the BOSTON GLOBE, NEW YORK TIMES, AOL NEWS, YAHOO! NEWS, and several others.