More IEM-Type Prediction Markets Could Emerge

Here's a prediction: Prediction markets are about to become federally regulated. On July 7, the federal agency that regulates futures markets will begin reviewing two months' worth of responses to a question the agency posed to the public in May: "Should the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulate prediction markets?" If the public's responses thus far-or the language in the CFTC's request for comment-is any indication, it's likely that the agency ultimately will. When it does, get ready to see more small-stakes prediction markets like the experimental, $500-maximum-bet IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, or IEM, that forecast things like Presidential elections or future monetary policy.

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