IEM Investors Predict Democrats will Win Election
August 21, 2008 | New York TimesTraders on the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, run by the business professors at the University of Iowa, gave the Democratic candidate a 61 percent chance of victory versus 38 percent for the Republican. Contracts on the political prediction exchanges are structured so trading prices are expressed as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. Studies have shown that the predictive power of markets is comparable to that of opinion polls. This Reuters story appeared on several news sites, including ABC News and Yahoo! Finance.