Article on Probability of War Cites IEM

A story about www.tradesports.com, a Dublin-based Web site where visitors can bet on everything from the outcome of sporting events to the Dow Jones tally on Dec. 31, 2003, says two Stanford economics professors have predicted that if war with Iraq started tomorrow share prices would drop 5 percent. The professors cite the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a real-money futures exchange administered by the University of Iowa that allows speculating on the U.S. presidential election. Despite trading volume that has averaged just $108,000 an election, these Iowa contracts have had an excellent track record, the article states. The article originally appeared Feb. 16 in the New York Times.

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