February 25, 2003 | CBS MarketwatchIn a column about the predictive nature of futures markets, the impressive track record of the Web-based futures exchange known as the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS is noted. This real-money futures exchange, administered by the University of Iowa, has allowed for betting on the outcome of each Presidential election since 1988. Over the past four elections, this exchange's average forecast error has been about half that of the major polling organizations. Researchers who study these Web-based markets believe they do such a good job because they reflect more knowledge and wisdom than any of us individually possesses, no matter how knowledgeable and wise we may be.
Contact: Sarah Newell