Nelson Quoted

Want to know the odds that Saddam Hussein will be dead by June? One-and-a-half to one, according to, an Internet gambling site. What about the odds that he will be ousted by the end of March? Two to one, according to And the likelihood of him in exile, smoking Cuban cigars with Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi? Five to one. Betting schemes can be such good predictors that the Pentagon "has inquired about the possibility of using these markets to provide advanced warning of future events," said Forrest Nelson, a professor at the University of Iowa who co-founded an experimental "political stock market." These markets could help the military evaluate the risks of "everything from the overturn of some government to terrorist attacks," Nelson said.