July 27, 2004 | Science NowCurrent betting markets -- led by web sites such as www.intrade.com, tradesports.com and fairbet.com -- may outperform opinion polls when it comes to predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In the last four presidential elections, according to a paper by Justin Wolfers of the University of Pennsylvania and Eric Zitzewitz of Stanford University. The UNIVERSITY OF IOWA'S IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET has averaged an error margin of +/- 1.5 percent in the week before the vote, compared with +/- 2.1 percent for the Gallup polls. More recently, traders picked John Edwards as John Kerry's running mate two months before Kerry did. Science Now is the online presence of Science magazine.
Contact: Robert Forsythe