August 8, 2004 | New York TimesSen. John Kerry's failure to get a bounce in the polls after the Democratic convention may have surprised the chattering classes, but not the people who let their money do the talking. Meanwhile, though, traders in political futures were busy shifting their bets to President George W. Bush at two online markets, Intrade and the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, where tens of thousands of investors spend real money to buy futures contracts. Whatever their calculations, the traders have a good collective track record, said JOYCE BERG, the co-director of the Iowa market, which is run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's business school. In the last four presidential elections, she said, the election-eve trading price has typically been within 1.5 percentage points of the actual result, which is about half a point more accurate than the average election-eve poll.
Contact: Joyce Berg