September 20, 2004 | Wall Street JournalLooking past corporate profits and interest rates, some investors have begun tracking data on an Irish betting web site, TradeSports.com, that takes wagers on, among other things, who will win the presidential election. In recent weeks, a chart of President Bush's re-election chances based on TradeSports odds has looked surprisingly like the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. TradeSports isn't the same as a poll. It is run as a futures market, similar to one operated by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA (the Iowa Electronic Markets), in which speculators can buy or sell contracts that pay off depending on who wins.
Contact: Robert Forsythe