IEM Shows Bush Taking Lead

Forget the polls. The electronic market maintained by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA'S COLLEGE OF BUSINESS, which makes you put your money where your opinions are, was showing Sunday that George W. Bush had become a 3-2 favorite to beat John Kerry. In other words, to win a dollar if you're right on Nov. 2, you have to put up 60 cents today for a bet on Bush but just 40 cents for Kerry. That's the biggest gap, by far, since the market started offering the wager in early June. The Iowa market (check it out at tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets) isn't infallible, but academic research shows it has a better track record than public opinion surveys, and it tends to be far more stable -- which is why the latest numbers are so shocking and significant. The website provides news, analysis, research, and commentary about the intersection of technology and public policy.

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