October 10, 2004 | Wall Street JournalA story about "elections futures" says the University of Iowa has been running such markets since the 1988 presidential election. But interest has surged this year and the number of investors has increased about 25 percent. Some commercial sites such as InTrade.com are also now offering election futures. FORREST NELSON, a professor at the University of Iowa, says the election-futures market has a 1 1/2 percentage-point margin of error in predicting the results of past elections, compared with 2 1/4 percentage points for opinion polls.
Contact: Forrest Nelson