October 11, 2004 | CNNFNGEORGE NEUMANN, UI economics professor and Iowa Electronic Markets co-director, commented on the IEM's record of accurately predicting election results, and gave a current reading of the market for the 2004 election. "Right now we're showing it's a tight race and (have) been showing that since March. (The markets) have Bush ahead by two points, 51.49 in the vote share market. We also run a market that assesses the probability of winning the majority share of the two-party vote. And that had Bush ahead -- or with a probability of winning the majority share of the popular vote -- by around 60 percent as recent as a week ago. But that's narrowed to about 54 to 46 percent."
Contact: George Neumann