Bush Leading in IEM

In the late 1980s, the University of Iowa created a real-money futures exchange that allowed investors to bet on which presidential candidate would win the general election. Several other electronic futures markets have since been created as well, most prominently the Dublin-based Intrade. These markets are now fairly strongly predicting that George Bush will win re-election. As of Thursday night, for example, the Bush futures contract at the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS was trading at a price that reflects a 59 percent probability of Bush winning. The probability implicit in the similar contract at Intrade is 61 percent. The article also appeared in INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY.