November 2, 2004 | BusinessWeekThe IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS is a real-money futures market maintained by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business, which provide probability estimates for events such as elections. The futures contracts are priced for the GOP maintaining control of both houses. Indeed, the market is priced for either a GOP pickup in House seats or for no change in composition. The odds for the Senate aren't quite as strong, with around a 50-50 odds of a Republican pickup In the Presidential contest, the chances of a Bush win narrowed through the debates but then widened. The futures contracts still point to a Bush win, which is in contrast to the mixed opinion polls.
Contact: Robert Forsythe