IEM Predicted Bush Victory

The polls were off-beam, the pundits were caught napping, the press didn't cover itself in glory -- did anyone confidently predict the result of the US election? The gambling community, perhaps. A glance at the returns of some of the world's biggest betting exchanges shows that President George W. Bush remained a clear favorite with punters right down to the wire. On the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), run by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA, participants gave Bush a 51.2 percent chance of re-election on the eve of the poll -- a score that tallied precisely with his eventual share of the popular vote, at the last count. The same story appeared on the web site of SLATE.