Research

• Memoirs of an Indifferent Trader: Estimating Forecast Distributions from Prediction Markets (Berg, Geweke, Rietz)
• Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run (Berg, Nelson, Rietz)
• Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets (Gruca, Berg, Cipriano)
• Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy (Gruca, Berg, Cipriano)
• Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity (Polgreen, Nelson, Neumann)
• The Iowa Electronic Market: Stylized Facts and Open Issues (Berg, Rietz)
• Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction Markets (Gruca Berg, Cipriano)
• Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market (Oliven, Rietz)
• Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research (Berg, Forsythe, Nelson, Rietz)
• Prediction Markets as Decision Support SystemsPrediction Markets as Decision Support Systems (Berg, Rietz)
• The Effect of Electronic Markets on Forecasts of New Product Success (Gruca, Berg, Cipriano)
• Longshots, Overconfidence and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market (Berg, Rietz)
• What Makes Markets Predict Well? Evidence from the Iowa Electronic Markets (Berg, Forsythe, Rietz)
• Anatomy of an experimental political stock market (Forsythe, Nelson, Neumann, Wright)
• The Explanation and Prediction of Presidential Elections: A Market Alternative to Polls (Forsythe, Nelson, Neumann, Wright)