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Iowa Economic Forecast Projects Iowa Income Growth in 2005-2006

According to its latest Iowa Economic Forecast, the University of Iowa Institute for Economic Research expects real personal income growth of 3.7 percent in 2005, up from a forecast of 2.7 percent in March. For 2006, the Institute projects real personal income growth in the state to be 2.1 percent.

Charles Whiteman, Institute director and UI professor of economics, noted that the last forecast was based on state income data through the third quarter of 2004, but this latest forecast is based on state income data through the first quarter of 2005. "We were predicting strong growth for the last quarter of 2004, and the data now tell us that growth in that quarter was even stronger than expected. That very strong fourth quarter growth helped pull up average growth in 2004, but it's not something that is sustainable," he said.

The Institute's forecast for employment, based on the most recent data through the first quarter of 2005, is for slightly slower growth during the next two years. The forecast for 2005 is for a growth rate of 0.9 percent in employment, down from 1.4 percent in March, and an increase of 1.1 percent in 2006.

The Board of Regents, State of Iowa created the Institute for Economic Research in July 1975 to facilitate cohesive and continuing economic research and to establish a formal mechanism for providing interaction with, and economic research services to, government and industry. Each quarter, the Institute produces the Iowa Economic Forecast, which contains quantitative forecasts of economic conditions and tax revenues for the State of Iowa, utilizing the latest developments in econometric theory.


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