News & Events

IEM Seen As Election Indicator

CNN's Jeff Greenfield said the University of Iowa Business School has created an electronic futures market where anyone can bet on political events. It's real money, although there is a maximum of $500, to prevent some megabucks partisan from gaming the system. So, in a political campaign, like the last presidential race, the better the candidate is doing, the higher the price of his futures contract. Unlike polling, there is no scientific sampling. By election day in 2004, the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS suggested that Bush would get just about 51 percent of the total, while Kerry would get about 48 percent. That is exactly what the final result was. This year, in the Senate, the overwhelming action in the IEM's Congressional Control market is on the Republicans keeping control. On the House side, in the last week or so, the action has shifted a bit toward the view of Republicans holding the House.

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