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Rietz: Futures Markets Tracks Candidates

In the past four U.S. presidential elections, THOMAS RIETZ and his colleagues at the University of Iowa have set up a futures market in which players have a financial stake in predicting the result of the election. Traders buy shares in the candidate they think will win, which they can cash in when the contest is over. Rietz says the predictions of the markets consistently beat the pollsters.

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