News & Events

UI's Political Futures Market Cited in Column

In an op-ed piece about the volatility of financial markets, columnist Sebastian Mallaby credits amateur traders on the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA's political futures market with predicting elections more accurately than professional pollsters. Despite periodic bouts of wantonly irrational investor behavior, most people now accept that financial markets -- indeed, all markets in which people trade views about the future -- are the least bad way of processing information. Today, markets are used to predict everything from influenza outbreaks to the sales of a new Harry Potter book.

Return to top of page