News & Events

Iowa Electronic Markets Traders Give Iowa Caucus Edge to Perry

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets' recently opened Iowa caucus market have given Texas Gov. Rick Perry the highest likelihood of finishing as one of the top two vote getters on caucus night.

Traders also give an equal probability for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann finishing in the top two.

As of 9 a.m. Wednesday, Perry's contract was selling for 75 cents, which means traders believe he has a 75 percent probability of finishing in the top two. Bachmann and Romney were both selling for 47 cents, which means traders believe each of them has a 47 percent probability of finishing in the top two.

The IEM's real-money Iowa Republican caucus market opened Aug. 31. The caucus market differs from other IEM markets in that contracts will pay off if the candidate they represent finishes in the top two vote getters. In other markets, only the contracts for the winning candidate pay off.

Contracts are also trading for Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and business executive Herman Cain. Paul was trading at 29.9 cents, while both Gingrich and Cain are trading for 1 cent.

The Rest of Field contract, which represents a candidate for whom no individual contract has been issued, is selling for 26.2 cents.

The Iowa Electronic Markets is operated by the UI's Tippie College of Business as a real-money futures prediction market. Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls. Such markets have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

The IEM can be found online at tippie.uiowa.edu/iem. The Iowa caucus market prices can be found at iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/355.html.


Return to top of page