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IEM: Congress to Remain Split after November 5

According to the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), a real market in congressional futures, control of Congress will most likely remain split after the Nov. 5 elections. The market in congressional futures operates on computer systems at the Henry B. TIPPIE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF IOWA; traders can gain access through the World Wide Web. Here's what an analysis of the market by Goldman, Sachs economists shows: As the biggest change, Republican chances have improved since last month. As of Sept. 19, the IEM quotes gave a 42.7 percent chance that either party would control either the House or Senate and a 63.5 percent probability to the GOP retaining control of the House. That's a sharp rise over the last few weeks. And, the least likely outcome is a Republican takeover of both houses of Congress. The market gives only a 25 percent chance that will happen. The Hill is a Washington, DC.-based newspaper that covers Congress.


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