News & Events

Think Tank Notes IEM As Election Predictor

In a daily digest covering opinion pieces, reactions to recent news events and position statements released by various think tanks, the National Center for Policy Analysis notes the IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS. As the election gets down to the wire, pundits of all kinds are speculating on the outcome. Usually, they look at polls, debates, press coverage, advertising and such. Economists prefer to look at markets. They are signaling that maintenance of the status quo is the most likely outcome, with continued Republican control of the House and Democratic control of the Senate. For some years, the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has run a futures market on key elections. Investors can buy contracts for various electoral outcomes, with prices changing depending on events. Right now, contracts are available for four possible outcomes on Tuesday: Republican House/Republican Senate, Republican House/Democratic Senate, Democratic House/Republican Senate, and Democratic House/Democratic Senate. As of Oct. 31, the prices showed that there is a 1-in-2 chance of Republicans keeping the House and Democrats keeping the Senate. In other words, even money.


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