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UI report predicts moderate economic growth in Iowa

The Iowa Economic Forecast points to a moderate pace in the state's economic activity for the remainder of 2000 and into 2001.

The University of Iowa Institute for Economic Research released the forecast today (Friday, Nov. 17) at the Iowa Economic Forecasting Council meeting in Des Moines.

The Institute's forecasts show that the rate of real income growth in Iowa in 2001 (3.3 percent growth) will essentially match that of the nation as a whole (3.4 percent growth). This forecast is down 0.3 percent from a September forecast of 3.6 percent growth. The early forecast for 2002 is for 3 percent income growth, compared to a September forecast of 3.4 percent growth.

Slow employment and population growth continue to be features of the Iowa labor market in both 2000 and 2001, said Institute director Beth Ingram, UI associate professor of economics.

"Our expectation is that employment will continue to grow in Iowa, despite an expectation of no growth in the total population in the state. But for the first time in two years, we have revised our employment growth forecast downward," Ingram said.

The forecast for employment growth in 2000 stands at 1.8 percent, down from the 2.0 percent growth predicted in September. Employment growth is expected to be positive in all sectors of the Iowa economy except durable and non-durable goods manufacturing through 2000 and 2001. As usual, growth is strongest in services and retail trade, Ingram said.

For more information, contact Ingram at (319) 335-0897 or Charles H. Whiteman, UI economics professor and fellow of the Institute, at (319) 335-0834.


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