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Iowa Economic Forecast Projects Increased Income Growth

According to its latest Iowa Economic Forecast, the University of Iowa Institute for Economic Research expects real personal income growth of 2.3 percent in 2003, up from a forecast of 1.4 percent in August. For 2004, the Institute projects real income growth in the state to be 1.4 percent for 2004, down from 1.8 percent in the August forecast.

Charles Whiteman, Institute director and UI professor of economics, said the forecast is based on state income data through the second quarter of 2003. He attributed the changes in the forecast to growth in the state economy for the second quarter of the year that was stronger than had been predicted by about $500 million, which is slightly over 2 percent at an annual rate.

The Institute's forecast for employment in Iowa has not changed substantially since August. Whiteman anticipates negative employment growth in Iowa in 2003 (-0.3 percent), followed by moderate growth in 2004 (0.6 percent). In August, the forecasts were -0.9 percent and 1.1 percent respectively.

The Board of Regents, State of Iowa created the Institute for Economic Research in July 1975 to facilitate cohesive and continuing economic research, and to establish a formal mechanism for providing interaction with, and economic research services to, government and industry. Each quarter, the Institute produces the Iowa Economic Forecast, which contains quantitative forecasts of economic conditions and tax revenues for the State of Iowa, using the latest advances in econometrics.


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