News & Events

IEM Cited on Presidential Race Predictions

A story about the various models and formulas used to predict the outcome of presidential elections mentions the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA'S IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, which allows participants to buy and sell futures contracts that pay out relative to actual votes received by each candidate. The market opened only in 1988, but in the five presidential elections during which it has operated, it has been more accurate in predicting final vote shares than the last national polls taken before Election Day. As of midweek, the Iowa market gives Bush a 52 percent lead over Kerry's 48 percent.


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