IEM: Hillary Clinton posts strong gain, Gore and Democrats maintain
In the IEM, the University of Iowa's real-money market where traders buy and sell political futures, current market prices show Clinton shares trading at 70 cents, compared to Lazio shares at 30 cents. This spread has widened since the candidates' Sept. 13 debate, with Clinton shares in this "winner-take-all-market" taking off a few days after the debate, from a 56-cent level, and Lazio shares sinking from 44 cents. (See graph at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/nysenate.gif). Some recent polls have Clinton and Lazio in a much closer race.
In other IEM markets, Al Gore retains a slight lead in the presidential market. Gore shares were at 50 cents and Bush shares were at 48 cents; however, his lead has eroded slightly since Sept. 20 when his shares were at 53 cents. (See graph at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/pres00_VS.gif)
In the Congressional control market, the IEM is still predicting a non-Republican (Democratic) House of Representatives and a Republican Senate. The non-Republican (Democratic) House/Republican Senate futures contract is leading the market at 48 cents, compared to contracts for a Republican-controlled House and Senate at 41 cents. (See graph at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/Congress00.gif). Like the presidential market, it has remained largely unchanged over the past week.
The IEM has forecasted election results with great accuracy, tracking the Democratic and Republican vote shares in the last three presidential elections within an average of less than 2 percent. The IEM has 6,200 traders and more than $150,000 in equity. For an investment of as little as $5 or as much as $500, trading in the markets is open to participants world-wide.
Six faculty members at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business operate the markets as a research and teaching tool. See the markets online at http:/tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/ for the latest prices.
For more information on the IEM, contact Jeanine Alcocer, IEM Operations Manager at (319) 335-0794.
Contact: George McCrory, UI News Service, 319-384-0012