News & Events

IEM's Prediction Accuracy Noted

Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at Stanford University who studies political wagering, and other political analysts believe trading exchanges are often accurate forecasters of political events. The IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS, a political futures market run by the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business, claims that its market, which allows traders to bet up to $500, frequently outperforms polls in predicting election results. In the Iowa market's last major election event -- last year's California gubernatorial recall -- traders were off by less than 1 percent in forecasting the margin of victory for Arnold Schwarzenegger.

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