News & Events

IEM Uses Markets To Predict Election

Who won the last presidential debate? Who's going to win the U.S. election? According to the betting and political futures trading communities, it was -- and will be -- George W Bush. Since the election of 1988, one source, the electronic market run as a test lab by the business school at the University of Iowa, has accurately predicted presidential outcomes based on futures contracts. "The central premise is that markets can reveal information about future events," FORREST NELSON, an economics professor at the university and board member of the Iowa Electronic Markets, told Wired Magazine two years ago.


Return to top of page