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George R. Neumann

George R. Neumann Economics

George Daly Professor of Economics
W388  John Pappajohn Bus Bldg
The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242-1994

Academic History

  • PhD in Economics, Northwestern University, 1974
  • MA in Economics, Northwestern University, 1969
  • BA in Economics, Le Moyne College, 1968


  • Economics of Union Activity
  • Influenza Models
  • Stochastic Models of Labor Markets
  • Using Markets to Aggregate Information with Small Numbers of Traders

    Selected Publications

    Working Papers

    • Managing Competition: The Case of the National Football League,, George R. Neumann, Robert F. Tamura
    • Skill Variation Over the Business Cycle: Danish Workers 1980-91, George R. Neumann, Elizabeth Cunningham , Paniotis Mavros
    • The Effect of Revolution on Income Distribution: The Case of China, George R. Neumann, Yiling T. Zhao
    • Why Do Prediction Markets Forecast Better Than Polls: A General Equilibrium Model of Information Aggregation, George R. Neumann

      Sponsored Research

      • The Use of Prediction Markets to Predict Influenza Activity, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Phillip Polgreen. Robert Woods Johnson Foundation
      • Influenza Markets, George R. Neumann, Forrest D. Nelson, Philip M. Polgreen. Robert Woods Johnson Foundation
      • An Avian Influenza Prediction Market, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Phillip Polgreen. Robert Woods Johnson Foundation

      Other Work

      • The Job Ladder, George R. Neumann, Audra Bowlus, Structural Labour Market Models and Employment Dynamics/Elsevier, 2006, 217-35
      • Job Destruction, George R. Neumann, Panel Data and Structural Labor Market Models, 2000, 67-83
      • Forecasting Elections: A Market Alternative to Polls, George R. Neumann, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, T. Palfrey, ed. Laboratory Research in Political Economy, 1991, 69-112

        Prior Positions

        • Research Professor of Economics, The University of Aarhus, February 2002 - June 2002
        • Visiting Research Professor of Economics, Centre, The University of Tilburg, May 1999 - June 1999
        • Fellow, The Tinbergen Institute, May 1996 - June 1996
        • Visiting Professor of Economics, Princeton University, August 1990 - July 1991
        • Visiting Associate Professor of Economics, Northwestern University, August 1982 - June 1984
        • Associate Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, June 1974 - June 1984
        • Visiting Research Professor of Economics, Aarhus University, August 1983 - September 1983
        • Visiting associate Professor, Cornell University, August 1979 - December 1979
        • Assistant Professor of Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, 1972 - 1974

        Review and Editorial Work

        • Referee, Austrian National Science Foundation, 2004 - current
        • Referee, Israel National Science Foundation, 2003 - current
        • Referee, Leverhulme Trust, 2003 - current
        • Referee, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 2002 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Lifetime Data Analysis, 1998 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Labor Economics, July 1991 - current
        • Referee, Canadian Journal of Statistics, 1990 - current
        • Referee, International Economic Review, 1990 - current
        • Referee, Canadian Journal of Economics, 1988 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Business & Economics Statistics, 1985 - current
        • Referee, Economic Inquiry, 1984 - current
        • Referee, Skandanavian Journal of Economics, 1984 - current
        • Referee, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1982 - current
        • Referee, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 1981 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 1978 - current
        • Referee, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1978 - current
        • Referee, American Economic Review, 1976 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Business, 1975 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Law & Economics, 1975 - current
        • Referee, Journal of Legal Studies, 1975 - current
        • Referee, Econometrica, 1974 - current
        • Referee, U. S. National Science Foundation, January 1974 - current


          • Reflections on Graduate Education, Professor John Kennan's 65th Birthday Celebration, UW Department of Economics; Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Madison, WI, May 2012
          • Why Do Prediction Markets Work?, Applied Mathematical and Computational Sciences, AMCS, Math Dept, University of Iowa, February 2012
          • Why Do Prediction Markets Work?, Forecasting in Political Science: Markets vs. Models, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario Canada, November 2011
          • Joel Horowitz's Contributions to Econometrics, Conference to celebrate Prof. Joel Horowitz's 70th Birthday, University College London Department of Economics; CMAPP, London, UK, June 2011
          • Nobel Price Award Conference for Dale Mortensen, Nobel Price Award Conference for Dale Mortensen, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, April 2011
          • Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Influenza, IMEDS 2009, International Meeting of Emerging Disease Society, Vienna, Austria, February 2009
          • University of Copenhagen Conference on Forecasting, University of Copenhagen, DK, Copenhagen, DK, December 2008
          • Danish Labor Economics Conference, Aarhus University, Odense, DK, August 2008
          • Medical Information Markets, American Economic Association Winter Meetings-2008, AEA, New Orleans, LA Jan 5-10, January 2008

          Committees and Professional Service

          • Graduate Committee, 2011-2012
          • Recruiting Committee, 2011-2012