Does the IEM already know who will win the 2020 election?

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

The Wall Street Journal's 2020 Election+Business newsletter mentions the Tippie College of Business' Iowa Electronics Market (IEM) as one of the predictors of the upcoming presidential election.

U.S. election guide to markets: What to watch with one day to go

Monday, November 7, 2016

With one day to go until Election Day in the U.S., investors seem less certain of the outcome than prediction-market gamblers and polling aggregators.

Markets predict Clinton will beat Trump

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

As America votes, bringing to a close the most cantankerous presidential contest in modern memory, markets far and wide are expecting Hillary Clinton to win. Billions of dollars are riding on this projection, but of course, that doesn’t guarantee it will happen.

Betting sites see record wagering on US presidential election

Monday, November 7, 2016

The raucous, passionate and unpredictable 2016 U.S. presidential election is on track to notch another distinction: the most wagered-upon political event ever.

Brexit fresh, gamblers raise stakes for Trump win

Thursday, November 3, 2016

In the final countdown to the US election, Americans and foreigners alike are jostling to bet on a shock Donald Trump victory, buoyed by tightening polls and memories of Brexit.

Goldman Sachs still expects Hillary to win the election, but...

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Polls have tightened in the US presidential election, in Goldman Sachs', view due to a combination of recent campaign developments and mean reversion following the presidential debates and other events over the last month. However, even after adjusting Sec. Clinton’s lead in state polls for her diminished margin nationally, she still appears likely to win more than the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the White House.

Probability of a Trump victory remains underpriced on markets

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

So, who is going to win? Prediction markets capture prevailing opinion and put a number on it. They may not be right, but they express the prevailing wisdom.

Iowa Electronic Markets and the U.S. election

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Video of Tippie Finance Professor Thomas Rietz discusses forecasting and bias amid U.S. election campaigns.

Hillary Clinton slumps, Donald Trump jumps on political prediction market

Friday, October 28, 2016

How much of a game-changer is the report that the FBI is looking into emails linked to an aide to Hillary Clinton, less than two weeks before the election? It’s a shocker, based on news reports as well as a sharp drop in Clinton’s stock on the Iowa Electronic Markets.

UI Presidential Nomination Market shows Clinton holding steady lead

Monday, October 10, 2016

A research project by the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business is showing Hillary Clinton would likely win the presidential election if it were held today.