financial markets newspaper
November 1, 2016
John Authers

The markets are scared of a victory for Donald Trump. Volatility remains low, but the Vix index has spiked twice since June’s Brexit referendum—in September 12, after Hillary Clinton was taken ill and admitted to having pneumonia, and again this week after a tracking poll showed Mr Trump in the lead.

To deal with this, we must break the issue into component parts. First, who is going to win, with what probability? Second is that probability priced by markets? And third, what effects would each outcome have on markets? The Iowa Electronic Markets is part of this analysis by The Financial Times.