IEM Offers Fred Thompson Contract in Republican Nomination Market
Contracts can be traded on the IEM site at www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/nomination08.html.
Though Thompson has not formally declared his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination, his name has generated buzz among political strategists and many Republican Party members. The Republican nomination market currently offers four contracts: Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Rest of Field. Joyce Berg, a professor of accounting in the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business and an IEM director, pointed out that in recent weeks, the Rest of Field contract has been trading at the highest price of the four.
"Newspapers have been reporting a surge of support for Fred Thompson recently," said Berg. "Creating a contract for him will allow us to see whether the market believes he is a viable candidate or whether it believes there is still someone else waiting in the wings."
Thompson is a former senator from Tennessee and an actor best known for his recent work as a district attorney on NBC's "Law and Order" television show. He has since left the show and has formed a presidential candidacy exploratory committee.
The Thompson contract on the IEM will be named THOMF_NOM.
No changes have been made to the Democratic nomination market, Berg said. Contracts for sale on the Democratic market include Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards and Rest of Field.
The trading market, contract prospectuses and registration information can be found on the IEM 2008 U.S. Presidential Nomination Markets Web site at: www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/nomination08.html.
As of 9 a.m. Friday, Rest of Field was leading the Republican nomination market, with a contract trading at 42.3 cents. Giuliani led the individual candidates with 25 cents a contract, followed by Romney at 21.7 cents and McCain at 10.6 cents.
Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls. Such markets have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.
Contact: Tom Snee, UI News Services, 319-384-0010