News & Events

UI Relies on Market To Predict Election

As the election gets down to the wire, pundits of all kinds are speculating on the outcome. Usually, they look at polls, debates, press coverage, advertising and such. Economists prefer to look at markets. They are signaling that maintenance of the status quo is the most likely outcome, with continued Republican control of the House and Democratic control of the Senate. For some years, the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA has run a futures market on key elections. Investors can buy contracts for various electoral outcomes, with prices changing depending on events. Right now, contracts are available for four possible outcomes tomorrow: Republican House/Republican Senate; Republican House/Democratic Senate; Democratic House/Republican Senate; and Democratic House/Democratic Senate.


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