News & Events

IEM Gives Bush Narrow Lead over Kerry

Polls are not the only way to take the temperature of the electorate--one can also look at political markets. Probably the most famous of these are the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) run by professors at the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA. Researchers claim that such "prediction markets are considerably more accurate long-run forecasting tools than polls across elections and across long periods of time preceding elections." The IEM U.S. Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market offers futures contract such that a Bush contract will earn an investor $1 if he wins and $0 if he loses; the same for a Kerry contract. So what are the IEMs predicting about the 2004 election? So far the IEM Market shows Bush with a narrowing lead -- the current market price for Bush contract is $0.508 and $0.493 for a Kerry contract.

Return to top of page