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Rietz Comments on IEM

Since 1988, the Iowa Electronic Markets' futures wagering lines have predicted presidential popular vote to within an average of 1.37 percentage points, says TOM RIETZ, an associate professor of finance at the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business, which runs the betting site. Proponents say it may gain accuracy because participants risk losing their money if they bet incorrectly. "We think that we're more accurate than polls," Rietz says. "We ask people to predict what will happen in November, not how they're feeling today. We ask how they think everyone's going to vote, not how they're going to vote."

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