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Forecasting Risk with Probability Markets

Tippie Leads | Season 2 | Episode 3

Research: Tom Gruca | Story: Anna Makarenko

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Not all risks come from storms—some stem from political and economic shifts. For some, change means opportunity; for others, uncertainty. With the election behind us, how can we navigate risk beyond voting? 

Tippie’s Tom Gruca, through the Iowa Electronic Markets, has developed a remarkably accurate way to predict outcomes. In this episode, he explains how these markets help organizations manage risk. 

Then we'll hear from Tippie undergrad Anna Makarenko about dealing with uncertainty while in high school—in Ukraine. And finally, we’ll bring it all together with a Final Tip(pie) just for you.

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Episode guests

Portrait of Thomas Gruca.

Tom Gruca

George Daly Professor in Marketing and Director, Iowa Electronic Markets Marketing
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Anna Makarenko

Tippie Undergraduate Student